In Jain dharma this is not just a “prediction”, it is a niyama (fixed rule) of the time‑cycle and the loka (universe).

1. Rule of time and place (kāl–deśa niyama)

For Bhārat Kṣetra and Airāvata Kṣetra it is laid down that:

• Moksha is possible only up to the end of the 4th ara of a half‑cycle.
• In the 5th and 6th ara of the current avasarpiṇī (descending half‑cycle):

- No one attains keval‑jñāna. - No one attains moksha. - No Tīrthaṅkars appear.

This is a structural rule of the cosmic time‑cycle, not a temporary accident.

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2. Nature of the 5th ara (duṣamā)

The 5th ara is called duṣamā – an era of increasing sorrow and spiritual decline:

1. Short lifespan and weak body

- Very short life compared to earlier eras. - Bodies are weak, health is poor, environment is impure. - The severe tapas (austerities) and deep meditation needed to destroy all ghāti karmas cannot generally be performed.

1. Very strong passions (kaṣāyas)

- Anger, pride, deceit, greed are intense and almost continuous. - Such anantanubandhi kaṣāyas do not allow the soul to rise to the 13th guṇasthān (kevali‑sthiti) or 14th (siddha‑sthiti). - People can still be religious, do puja, take vows, but the inner purity needed for keval‑jñāna does not arise in this era here.

1. Decline of true faith and conduct

- The full, steady form of samyag‑darśan, samyag‑jñān, samyag‑cāritra (three jewels) required right up to keval‑jñāna and moksha does not arise in this era in Bhārat Kṣetra. - There may be partial right faith, partial vows, good conduct etc., but not the continuous, intense, highest form that leads to liberation from here and now.

So, even if an individual tries very hard, the combined condition of time (kāl), land (deśa), body, and collective karma blocks the final steps (13th and 14th guṇasthān) in this kṣetra during this ara.

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3. “If effort is everything, why this limit?”

Jainism is not fatalistic, but it also teaches that:

• Every effort happens within certain cosmic conditions.
• Some results are possible only when:

- The era is spiritually favourable, and - The land is of a type where moksha‑mārga is “open” (like in earlier eras of Bhārat, or in certain other kṣetras and times).

In the present 5th ara of Bhārat Kṣetra:

• You can:

- Gain merit (puṇya), - Gain scriptural knowledge, - Strengthen right faith, - Rise spiritually to high levels and - Bind causes for future moksha (including birth in eras/lands where moksha is open).

• You cannot:

- Complete the final destruction of all ghāti karmas, - Attain keval‑jñāna and moksha from here and now.

So the path is not useless; it is preparatory. One’s effort now shapes the birth in those future conditions where the door to moksha is actually open.

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4. Why specifically “no new Kevalins”?

In Jain doctrine:

• Keval‑jñāna is the state just before moksha;
• A kevalī very soon sheds all remaining aghāti karmas and becomes siddha.

If, by cosmic rule, moksha from Bhārat Kṣetra is closed in the 5th and 6th ara, then:

• A kevalī created here would have to attain moksha from here,
• But moksha from here is not possible in this era,
• Therefore, by niyama, keval‑jñāna itself does not arise here in this ara.

Thus: > No moksha → therefore no kevalins.

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5. What is meaningful for us now?

Even though new Kevalins will not arise and no one attains final moksha from Bhārat Kṣetra in this 5th ara, still:

• Practising ahimsa, aparigraha, satya, brahmacharya, etc.
• Doing dīkshā, vrata, tapas, svādhyāy, dhyān,
• Reducing kaṣāyas and mithyātva,

all these:

• Greatly lighten karmic load,
• Prepare the soul for birth in a better era/land,
• And thus are direct steps toward future moksha, even if not completed in this lifetime and era.

So the scriptural statement “no kevalī, no moksha in 5th ara of Bhārat Kṣetra” is not to discourage, but to explain the cosmic stage we are on, and to show that:

• Now is the time for intense preparation,
• The fruit of full liberation will ripen when kāl and deśa are suitable.